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Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Fun with 'life expectancy' comparisons

Bob Parks linked to a supposed news story and commented: Screenshot Of The Day
The US ranks 26th for life expectancy, right behind Slovenia

The left [is] using this to bash American health care while avoiding the daily inner city crime contributions
I commented --
"Life expectancy" rankings between polities using different metrics are inherently dishonest -- and the US uses a different set of metrics than European countries do (hint: ours is more honest, and lowers our "score" in comparison to theirs).

For instance, infant mortality rates -- and how they are counted and then computed into the "life expectancy" number -- has a significant impact on the "score" being used to compare countries. The US counts *all* live births, even if the infant dies immediately after its birth. On the other hand, most other countries *don't* count all live births, but rathe count only those infants who survive some arbitrary cut-off period -- days or weeks, even as much as a full year. The majority of infant mortality occurs within the first few days of birth, and unless a society is a total hell-hole, if an infant survives the first year, he's generally going to make it to adulthood.

Consider:
If there are 98 people -- and just to make the math simple -- all of whom live exactly 70 years, then the average life-span of that group of people was obviously 70 years [i.e. (70 * 98) / 98].

But, add to the group a ninety-nineth person who died at birth, and the average life-span of the group drops to 69.29 years [i.e. ((70 * 98) + 0) / 99].

Now, add a one-hundredth person who died at birth, and the average life-span of the group drops to 68.6 years [i.e. ((70 * 98) + 0 + 0) / 100]

In the US, we count those two persons who died at birth; most European countries don't.
Who wouldn't want to live in the hypothetical polity with an average life-span "score" of 70 years as compared to the one with a "score" of 68.6 years -- and yet, these two hypothetical polities are the exact same place! The only difference between them is *how* the average life-span is being calculated.

Also, keep in mind, in calculating these "average life-spans", I *know* exactly how long the persons being counted actually lived. In contrast, in "calculating" "average life expectancy", no one yet knows how long the persons being counted actually will live: "average life expectancy" is derived via actualial computations, not from computations of actual lives lived.

As Mr Parks said: The left [is] using this to bash American health care while avoiding the daily inner city crime contributions ... because leftists don't give a damn about truth, and they will use *any* excuse they can get you to swallow to get you to give up your liberty and so increase their power over your life.

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